Political Stability

Impeachment Trial of Vice President Sara Duterte Begins

The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte began on July 6, with only 21 senator-judges present due to Senator Marcoleta's arrest. Senator Escudero was elected presiding officer and maintained the 16-vote conviction threshold, while the prosecution subpoenaed the VP's financial records.

House Impeaches Vice President Duterte For the Second Time, While Senate Installs Pro-Duterte Chamber Leadership

Vice President Sara Duterte is impeached by the House of Representatives anew, but a major reset in the Senate might secure the Vice President an acquittal – assuming that the trial proceeds in the first place.

ICC Publicly Releases Arrest Warrant Against Senator Ronald Dela Rosa

The ICC publicly confirmed its arrest warrant against Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa over drug war-related crimes against humanity charges. Tensions remain high around the Senate complex as supporters and opposition groups mobilize amid uncertainty over possible arrest operations.

House Set to Vote Once Again on the Impeachment of Vice President Duterte

The House of Representatives Justice Committee unanimously approved Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte. A plenary vote is set for May 11. If approved, a Senate trial will commence, where 2028 election alliances will heavily dictate the final political outcome.

ICC Confirms Charges Against Former President Rodrigo Duterte

The International Criminal Court has confirmed crimes against humanity charges against former President Rodrigo Duterte. This move to trial signals prolonged legal proceedings and increases the risk of arrest for his top allies, potentially impacting Philippine political stability.

ICC Concludes Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s Confirmation of Charges Hearing; Former Military Personnel Accuse Philippine Government of “Funding” Domestic ICC Activities

The ICC concluded a confirmation of charges hearing against former President Duterte for crimes against humanity. While Duterte waived his appearance, the court identified several co-perpetrators. Meanwhile, some former military personnel alleged illicit government funding of the ICC.

Impeachment Complaint Against President Marcos Insufficient in Form and Substance, New Complaint Filed Against Vice President Duterte

Impeachment efforts against President Marcos Junior have effectively ceased after a House panel dismissal. Conversely, Vice President Sara Duterte faces a third complaint alleging the misuse of six hundred twelve million pesos, which may threaten her future political eligibility.

Status Quo Holds in Senate As Blue Ribbon Committee Report Fuels Rumours of Senate Presidency Coup

A rumored Senate leadership coup against President Sotto failed following private negotiations. The unrest was triggered by corruption investigations and committee shifts, though a potential power-sharing agreement with Senator Legarda may signal a leadership change before the term ends.

Impeachment Complaints Filed Against Both President Marcos and Vice President Duterte

In a historic move, impeachment complaints have been filed against both President Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte. While the House found the complaints against the President sufficient in form, new filings against the Vice President focus on alleged misuse of confidential funds.

Impeachment Complaints Filed Against President Marcos

Impeachment complaints against President Marcos Jr. were filed in the House but face low odds of advancing due to strong administration support. The allegations center on the ICC, drug use claims, and budget corruption, yet the developments may still dampen investor confidence in the country.

ANALYSIS: A Deeper Look Into the 2026 National Budget

President Marcos Jr. signed the 2026 national budget, which features a massive cut to the DPWH and a significant increase for education. Despite efforts at transparency, the budget remains controversial due to remaining unprogrammed funds, sparking petitions for judicial review.

Assessment on Political Stability

Infrastructure corruption scandals have triggered leadership changes and public protests. While minority groups call for resignation, a change in administration is unlikely without significant military or broad public support.

Weekend Anti-Corruption Protests Generally Peaceful; Rumored Coup Attempt Unlikely

Anti-corruption rallies by religious and retired military groups caused heavy traffic in Manila and Quezon City but remained peaceful. Despite rumors of a military-led coup to unseat the president, security analysts monitor no credible force build-up or destabilization threat to businesses.

Unconfirmed Reports of ICC Warrant Against Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa

Reports indicate an unconfirmed International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Senator Ronald Dela Rosa. The Senate opposes enforcement on its legislative grounds, creating potential operational friction and complex legal disputes over local extradition procedures.

Infrastructure Probe Commission Recommends Filing Complaints Against Senators Villanueva, Estrada, Other Officials

The Independent Commission for Infrastructure recommended charges against Senators Joel Villanueva, Jinggoy Estrada, and four former officials over an alleged flood control bribery scheme. However, the public remains skeptical of the outcome due to past overturned corruption convictions.

Malacañang Calls for Patience as Business Groups and Civil Society Demand Urgent Responses to Infrastructure Corruption Scandal

Philippine business and labor groups demand urgent action and transparency regarding the national infrastructure corruption probe. As protests continue, the administration calls for patience, assuring the public that ongoing investigations will hold involved individuals accountable.

President Marcos and Vice President Duterte Record Declining Trust and Approval Ratings in Q3 2025

Trust and approval ratings for President Ferdinand Marcos, Junior and Vice President Sara Duterte both declined due to an ineffective anti-corruption campaign and frequent protests, signaling political risks that local enterprises should monitor.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte to Remain in ICC Detention After Being Ruled as “Flight Risk”

The International Criminal Court denied former President Rodrigo Duterte’s request for temporary release, citing high political influence and witness intimidation risks. He remains in detention indefinitely, anchoring domestic political dynamics that corporate entities should monitor.

PSA Political Stability Updates: Marcos Administration’s Last 3 Years to be Dominated by Political Infighting and Public Discontent

Political infighting and public protests will intensify during the final three years of the administration, though government operations face low risk of systemic destabilization. Enterprises should monitor ongoing political fragmentation and demonstrations for localized operational risks.

ICC Prosecutors Charge Former President Rodrigo Duterte with Three Counts of Murder; Confirmation of Charges Hearing Still Unscheduled

The International Criminal Court published the list of murder charges against former President Rodrigo Duterte over his drug war. The confirmation hearing was postponed due to his reported medical issues, and he remains in indefinite detention while his defense team appeals for release.

‘For the Greater Good’: Leyte Representative Martin Romualdez Resigns as House Speaker, Replaced by ‘Ally’ Isabela Representative Bojie Dy

Martin Romualdez resigned as House Speaker amid an independent probe into infrastructure corruption and was replaced by Faustino Dy Third. Enterprises should monitor this transition as the House maintains a strong majority coalition to advance its legislative agenda and the national budget.

Good Governance or Good Show? A Closer Look Into Recent Flood Control Projects Probe

The Marcos administration established the Independent Commission for Infrastructure to investigate anomalous public works projects. While the probe targets corrupt officials and contractors, it has triggered leadership conflicts and political realignment within both chambers of Congress.

Senator Tito Sotto is New Senate President in Major Leadership Shake-up

Senator Vicente Sotto III assumed the Senate presidency, replacing Francis Escudero amid infrastructure corruption allegations. The leadership shift reorganizes top chamber posts and weakens the opposition bloc, altering legislative dynamics that enterprises must monitor.

Groups Hold Scattered ‘Pocket Rallies’ Nationwide Amid Corruption in Flood Control Projects

‘Dead But Not Really Buried’: Senate Archives Impeachment Complaint Against Vice President

The Senate voted to archive the impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte after a Supreme Court ruling. This decision exposes friction between legislative chambers over constitutional processes, presenting potential regulatory and political stability risks for enterprises.

Supreme Court Nullifies Impeachment of Vice President Duterte

The Supreme Court declared Vice President Sara Duterte's impeachment proceedings null and void due to a procedural violation. While the decision halts near-term legislative trials, enterprises should watch for potential legal appeals and shifting dynamics ahead of the February 2026 filing window.

Updates on National Politics

The executive feud and legal challenges facing Vice President Sara Duterte have altered legislative dynamics and increased civil unrest risks. Enterprises must track the upcoming impeachment proceedings and changing political alliances to mitigate operational and stability risks.

Senate Remands VP Duterte Impeachment Articles, Casting Shadow on Trial’s Future

The Senate voted to remand Vice President Sara Duterte's impeachment complaint back to the House, delaying the trial. Enterprises should anticipate prolonged political and regulatory uncertainty as this unprecedented constitutional maneuver complicates the legislative timeline.

Eyes on Senate as Presentation of Vice President Duterte’s Articles of Impeachment is Scheduled Tomorrow

The Senate will convene as an impeachment court for Vice President Sara Duterte amid internal divisions and schedule delays. Enterprises should prepare for prolonged political uncertainty and legislative bottlenecks as the highly contested trial is projected to run for several months.

Palace Calls for Cabinet ‘Courtesy Resignations’ in Push to Restructure Government Leadership

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. requested courtesy resignations from his entire cabinet to evaluate performance. While key economic managers were retained to ensure policy continuity, enterprises must track upcoming leadership changes for potential regulatory shifts.

2050 Philippines Strategic Outlook

PSA Intelligence offers a forward-looking assessment of the nation’s geopolitical, economic, and sociopolitical trajectory over the next quarter century.

Former President Duterte’s Legal Team Formally Challenges ICC Jurisdiction

Former President Rodrigo Duterte challenged the International Criminal Court's jurisdiction amid reports of impending arrest warrants for top officials. Enterprises should monitor these developments for potential shifts in political stability and governance predictability.

Vice President Duterte Tops Approval Survey as Allied Senators Gain Ground in New Polls

Vice President Sara Duterte gained the sole majority approval rating as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. saw sharp declines, alongside strong polling for Duterte-backed candidates. Enterprises must monitor these shifting public sentiments for variations in political and policy stability.

Duterte Supporters Celebrate Former President’s 80th Birthday with Rallies

Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s 80th birthday saw a large rally in Davao City, but nationwide demonstrations underperformed. Enterprises should note this limited turnout amid the start of local election campaigns, signaling potential limits to the Duterte camp’s mobilizing power.

INC Releases Statement of Support for Former President Duterte

The INC issued a statement supporting former President Rodrigo Duterte and criticizing the administration. Enterprises must monitor potential large-scale protest mobilizations and shifting political alignments that could impact operational continuity.

Recommend Reading: What to expect in the 6 months before Duterte’s ICC pre-trial

The International Criminal Court is investigating former President Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-drug campaign, with potential arrest warrants expected by September 2025. Enterprises must monitor ongoing nationwide public protests, which could lead to localized disruptions and security risks.

Former President Duterte’s ICC Arrest: Implications for Political Stability, Elections, and Risk in the Philippines

The International Criminal Court arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte on March 11, 2025, heightens national political polarization. Enterprises must prepare for potential localized unrest, election volatility, and subsequent operational disruptions.

Malacañang Confirms Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s Arrest

The Philippine government has confirmed the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte in relation to ongoing investigations against him before the International Criminal Court.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested Under ICC Arrest Warrant

Former President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested under an International Criminal Court warrant for crimes against humanity. Enterprises must prepare for heightened political polarization and potential localized unrest by reviewing physical security and operational continuity plans.

Unconfirmed Reports of an Arrest Warrant against Former President Rodrigo Duterte

Unconfirmed reports alleging an impending arrest operation against former president Rodrigo Duterte prompted by the International Criminal Court are circulating in social media and political circles.

Senate Releases Proposed Timeline of Vice President Duterte’s Impeachment Trial

The Senate scheduled the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte for July 30, 2025. Leadership emphasized strict adherence to the timeline. Public opinion is divided. The proceedings highlight ongoing political tensions and potential risks to governance and business.

Vice President Sara Duterte Impeached by House but Senate to Defer Trial Until After SONA; Duterte Camp Files Graft Complaint Against House

The House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, initiating a Senate trial. As political divisions worsen, enterprises must monitor the resulting governance instability, potential policy shifts, and localized destabilization risks across the country.

Progressive Groups Hold Three Pro-Impeachment Protests on January 31

Three separate political rallies in Metro Manila drew 15,000 total attendees advocating for government accountability. While turnouts underperformed compared to religious events, enterprises should monitor persistent opposition mobilization for potential localized operational disruptions.

PSA Outlook: Dispute Between President Marcos Jr., Vice President Sara Duterte

While escalating Marcos-Duterte infighting and assassination threats heighten political volatility, widespread destabilization remains unlikely due to military neutrality. Enterprises should monitor localized, small-scale unrest and reputational risks impacting investor confidence.

ANALYSIS: Business, Religious, and Civil Society Groups Weigh in on the Country’s Political Climate

The executive rift creates reputational risks affecting investor sentiment, though day-to-day governance remains stable. While religious and business groups urge stability, the impending House decision on Vice President Duterte's impeachment will dictate the near-term political landscape.

Vice President Duterte Skips NBI Subpoena Over ‘Kill Threat’ to Marcos Family; Probe Rescheduled on December 11

The National Bureau of Investigation rescheduled Vice President Sara Duterte's hearing to December 11 over assassination threats and security law violations. While an impeachment complaint has been filed, the administration currently lacks the required Senate votes to remove her from office.

Supporters of Vice President Duterte Hold a Weeklong, Peaceful “Prayer Vigil” at EDSA Shrine

A weeklong prayer vigil by supporters of Vice President Sara Duterte at the EDSA Shrine failed to replicate historical mass protests. The unannounced gathering concluded with minimal security risks and negligible business disruption, causing only minor traffic incidents.

Vice President Sara Duterte Openly Threatens to ‘Assassinate’ President Marcos Jr.

Vice President Sara Duterte’s assassination threats against top leaders heighten political tensions but pose zero destabilization or economic disruption risks. Her camp lacks mobilization capability in Metro Manila, and the military remains loyal to the Philippine Constitution.