Foreign Affairs
12 reports
US Arms Deal for Taiwan Suspended As Middle East Conflict Persists
The United States postponed its weapons deal with Taiwan to secure munitions for operations against Iran. This decision reflects regional tensions and continued elevated risks surrounding the conflict.
Presidents Trump, Xi Met in China
Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reaffirmed commitments to strategic stability, trade cooperation, and dialogue on Iran and Taiwan during Trump’s state visit to China, although analysts expect existing geopolitical tensions and policy positions to largely remain unchanged in the near term.
First of Two ASEAN 2026 Summits Concluded in Cebu
The first ASEAN 2026 Summit in Cebu ended with agreements on regional energy and maritime cooperation amid rising tensions. However, limited progress was made on key issues, including the South China Sea disputes and Myanmar’s ongoing political crisis.
Pax Silica and the Philippines: What We Currently Know
The Philippines joined the United States-led Pax Silica initiative to secure the artificial intelligence supply chain. The resulting Economic Security Zone will accelerate allied manufacturing, though infrastructure and constitutional challenges must be navigated.
Complications Surrounding Philippine-Chinese Joint Oil and Gas Exploration in the West Philippine Sea
Joint energy exploration in the West Philippine Sea remains unlikely due to unresolved territorial disputes and legal complexities. While officials have expressed openness, no formal proposals exist, and concerns regarding sovereignty and security risks persist.
ANALYSIS: Philippines’ Efforts to Diversify its Bilateral Relations
The Philippines is strengthening its security posture by signing a visiting forces agreement with France while balancing economic ties with China. As the 2026 ASEAN Chair, Manila aims to lead regional stability efforts despite constitutional hurdles regarding joint energy exploration.
President Marcos Visits the United Nations In A Bid For A Non-Permanent Security Council Seat
President Marcos is seeking a 2027-2028 United Nations Security Council seat to amplify Philippine interests on climate and geopolitical issues, including West Philippine Sea disputes. This marks a shift toward friendlier international relations compared to the previous administration.
South Korea and the Philippines Enhance Cooperation for Developing Critical Minerals, Nuclear Power, Shipbuilding
The Philippines and South Korea signed seventeen agreements covering defense, nuclear energy, and shipbuilding. Key highlights include critical mineral cooperation to reduce China dependency and a feasibility study for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant to address local energy supply woes.
Recommended Reading: Pax Silica: alliances, frontier and markets in the geopolitics of the chip
The United States is implementing Pax Silica to secure the semiconductor supply chain against major power competition. This geopolitical strategy frames the recent critical minerals pact with the Philippines as a vital move for regional technological and military advancement.
ANALYSIS: Notable Incidents in the West Philippine Sea for October – December 2025
Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea intensified in late 2025, involving water cannon attacks and information warfare. While the Philippines pursues de-escalation and defense modernization, the 2026 ASEAN chairmanship provides a platform to negotiate a regional Code of Conduct.
Japan, Philippines Sign Two Defense Agreements and One Economic Assistance Program
The Philippines and Japan signed a new defense pact (ACSA) on January 15 to facilitate the transfer of military supplies. Japan also pledged significant security and economic aid for infrastructure, reinforcing trilateral cooperation with the United States amid Indo-Pacific tensions.
2050 Philippines Strategic Outlook
PSA Intelligence offers a forward-looking assessment of the nation’s geopolitical, economic, and sociopolitical trajectory over the next quarter century.