ANALYSIS: Philippines’ Efforts to Diversify its Bilateral Relations

The Philippines has been diversifying its bilateral relations for its strategic foreign policy gains, pursuing its defense goals with like-minded nations while securing economic cooperation with a traditional trade partner like China. At the same time, the Philippines is also attempting to gain a more prominent voice within the Southeast Asian region, maximizing its chairship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this 2026.

France is the Philippines’ Newest Visiting Forces Partner

After nearly two years of talks, Philippine Department of Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. signed a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) with French Minister of the Armed Forces Catherine Vautrin on Thursday, March 26, 2026. The agreement sets the legal framework for interoperability of both countries’ armed forces on disaster response, maritime security, and domain awareness among other regional and global security areas of cooperation. Both countries’ legislative bodies will need to ratify the SOVFA for it to be implemented. 

Previously, the French Navy already took part in past cooperative activities, such as joint drills with the Philippine and United States Navy, and aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle’s visit to Subic Bay in February 2025. France has also engaged with the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus), seen as an indication of deeper engagement in the wider region. PSA Intelligence analysts note the newest agreement legally defines such activities, and paves the way for expanded, lawful cooperation not just with France but also with other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The Philippines now has several similar defense cooperation agreements with other like-minded countries apart from its sole treaty ally, the United States. These include a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with Japan and SOVFAs with Australia, New Zealand, and Canada signed last year). The French SOVFA is the first such agreement that the Philippines has signed with a European country. A separate negotiation is ongoing with another potential European defense partner, the United Kingdom.

Philippines Conducts Back-to-Back Meetings with China

On March 27 and 28, 2026, senior Philippine and Chinese officials convened in Quanzhou, China for the 24th Foreign Ministry Consultations (FMC) and the 11th Meeting of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) on the South China Sea. The last time these meetings were held were in March 2023 and January 2025, respectively. According to the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), there were “candid and productive exchanges” on strategic, political-security and law enforcement issues. Both sides intended to “advance” beneficial cooperation in economic and people-to-people ties. 

Prior to the meetings, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. alluded to the possibility of renewed discussions with China over joint oil exploration activities in the West Philippine Sea. The Chinese Embassy in Manila welcomed the possibility of resuming discussions, noting that both countries “have conducted in-depth discussions on joint oil and gas development in disputed waters in the South China Sea and have made positive progress” in the past. The topic’s revival came as the Marcos administration, together with Petron, recently secured the first crude oil shipment from Russia in five years. This indicates the openness of the Philippines to pursue alternative economic partners not necessarily aligned with like-minded defense partners.

PSA Intelligence notes that in 2005, the Philippines’ joint exploration for possible oil and gas with China and Vietnam was declared unconstitutional. The 1987 Constitution provides for exploration of natural resources, but under the sole supervision and control of the Philippines. The Supreme Court also sided with petitioners who argued that the “exploration, development, and utilization of natural resources” is reserved for Filipino citizens or entities with at least 60 percent Filipino ownership in a 2023 ruling. Constitutional issues may resurface should discussion on joint oil explorations with China be pursued. 

Analysts are on the watch for concessions that both sides may negotiate for energy cooperation, should it be pursued outside of the context of any joint venture agreement. Previously, China continued militarizing WPS features it already occupied, even while the Philippines pursued closer economic ties with Beijing under former president Rodrigo Duterte.

Philippines as the ASEAN Chair

PSA Intelligence analysts expect the Philippines to continue striking a balance between focusing on national interests and securing ASEAN’s regional agenda. The bloc’s upcoming Leaders’ Summit this May will likely be on petroleum, food security, and welfare of migrant workers. The Philippines will likely continue to hedge on its existing relationships by simultaneously deepening defense and security cooperation with the US and other like-minded allies while securing economic commitments from China. The DFA is especially expected to be pragmatic on balancing foreign policy, with the geopolitical environment currently shaped by the ongoing Middle East conflict and the subsequent blocking of the Strait of Hormuz.

The possibility of an ASEAN Code of Conduct on the South China Sea being finalized during the Philippines’ tenure as the bloc’s chair remains highly uncertain. Retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio cited “deep divisions” between ASEAN members on the direction of the COC, despite the Philippines’ optimism on the Code’s progress this year. Additionally, China may expect the “megaphone diplomacy” on the West Philippine Sea – referring to public, heated exchanges – to be toned down, requesting information campaigns on the dispute to be reduced.