Foreign Conflict
9 reports
Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - May 29, 2026
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz restrict shipping, with reports of an extended ceasefire between the US and Iran. A fuel rollback is expected by June 2. In other news, Indonesian coal shifts may risk the Philippines’ power grid, while Japan will help build the country’s oil reserve.
Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - May 22, 2026
The Philippine government's buffer fuel supply is managed. The Department of Energy is not resuming state procurement due to storage limits, relying on private oil company procurement. Meanwhile, peace talks between US and Iran remain stalled.
Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - May 14, 2026
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy has expanded its operational area in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing transit restrictions. Meanwhile, the Philippines continues to prioritize bills on subsidy payments over tax cuts.
Latest Developments and Government Responses to the Middle East Conflict
The Philippine government implemented a fuel price rollback and tax suspensions following a brief ceasefire. However, the breakdown of United States and Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz blockade signal imminent price hikes, posing significant risks to enterprise logistics and costs.
Case Study: Deepfake-Powered “Lockdown” Hoax in the Philippines
Malacañang has refuted deepfake-fueled reports of lockdown in the Philippines linked to Middle East tensions and fuel shortages. Fraudulent news pages are using artificial intelligence to drive panic and redirect users to e-commerce sites, exploiting low digital literacy levels.
Emerging Chinese Grey-Zone Tactics in the West Philippine Sea
Chinese authorities are diversifying grey-zone tactics, including the first recorded use of flares against aircraft in 2026 and communication signal jamming. Despite these provocations, the Philippine government continues to prioritize diplomatic restraint and maritime cooperation.
U.S. and Australian Agencies Issue Warnings on Possible Cyber Attacks Related to Middle East Conflict
US and Australian agencies have warned financial institutions of heightened cyber threats from Iran-aligned actors. Banks face risks of disruptive DDoS attacks and ransomware. Analysts emphasize the need for robust cyber hygiene to prevent operational disruptions and reputational damage.
Assessment of Ongoing Foreign Conflicts and Tensions
Regional tensions and global wars pose indirect risks. While a China-Taiwan conflict is unlikely in 2026, the Philippines faces vulnerability regarding energy security, inflation, and potential involvement in maritime disputes.
China Announces Two-Day Military Drills Around Taiwan in Protest to President Lai’s Inauguration; Military Conflict Remains Unlikely
The Chinese People's Liberation Army are conducting military drills around Taiwan in response to the inauguration of Taiwanese pro-independence figure President Lai Ching-Te.