First Quarter Economic Growth at 2.8 Percent, High Prices and Increased Unemployment Heighten Economic Risks
The Philippine economy grew by only 2.8% in Q1 2026, alongside rising inflation and unemployment, raising concerns over possible stagflation. Analysts warn that prolonged global volatility and supply chain disruptions may continue to pressure businesses and consumers.
The combined impact of significant domestic and global shocks led to a five-year low economic growth of 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026. This is accompanied by rising prices with an inflation rate of 7.2 percent in April 2026, and an increased year-on-year unemployment rate of 5 percent in March 2026. Economists have raised concerns over the combined effects of slow growth, high inflation, and high unemployment - known as “stagflation” - while the government banks on increased government spending and resolution of the Middle East conflict to support growth and revive the economy.

PSA Intelligence Security Analyst Team Inside
The PSA Intelligence team of security and risk analysts monitor thousands of intelligence sources across the Philippines and broader APAC region daily. PSA Intelligence supplies well-known international corporate security operations centers and enterprise risk management teams the reports and data required for their operations.
Contact us to for access to our regular risk management reports and data-feeds. Be sure to talk to us about our analyst vetted, reliable data feeds for your AI driven risk management systems too. We have 20+ years of back-data and keep the data acquisition pipelines running so you don't have to.
PSA Intelligence: Regional Reporting Capabilities
Our fast-paced intelligence pipeline is driven by a dedicated team of Manila-based security analysts that monitor the Philippine landscape every day. We bring together on-the-ground local insight with large scale data monitoring and cut through the noise to deliver the concise, actionable intelligence that our clients rely on to navigate their risks.
Regular Briefs & Industry Monitors
We provide a weekly digest of key political, economic, and security developments and analysis of their short and long-term impact on the local and regional business environment. Our Industry Monitors deliver regular summaries of key developments in manufacturing, energy, mining, and tourism.
Our Cyber Risks Briefs detail emerging cyberthreats, digital security vulnerabilities, and regulatory shifts, while our Economic Briefs provide macroeconomic snapshots covering inflation, trade markers, and fiscal policy. We also publish Health Risks Briefs tracking local disease statistics and healthcare capacities.
Targeted Crime & Kidnapping Reports
Our teams produce continuous updates and analysis on developing crime and safety trends targeting corporates and staff, ranging from opportunistic petty crime to syndicated criminal activity. This includes deep dives on known modus operandi, suspect profiles, and sociopolitical environments.
Additionally, we monitor Kidnapping Related Incidents in the Philippines, tracking publicly-known abduction cases, motives, victim profiles, and the broader regional developments that influence these threat vectors.
Insurgency, Terrorism, and Civil Unrest
We conduct ongoing analysis of activities of Communist insurgents in the Philippines, including their estimated operational capabilities, regional hotspots, and the progress of government peace processes.
Our coverage extends to Islamist Insurgency and Terrorism in Mindanao, assessing activities not limited to terrorism-related motivations but also criminal, personal, and cultural factors. We provide continuous assessments of political stability, strikes, protests, and broader civil unrest dynamics affecting operational continuity.
Ask an Analyst
Do you have a question regarding this report that you would like to ask our team of security and risk analysts? Ask here.
Query Sent
Thank you. Our intelligence team will respond to your query shortly.