State of the Economy

Philippines Attains Upper-Middle-Income Country Classification by the World Bank

The World Bank upgraded the Philippines to an upper-middle-income country on July 1, based on a 2025 GNI per capita of USD 4,850. While signaling economic stability to global markets, the status means a gradual phase-out of low-interest loans, and 2026's slower growth risks reversing the upgrade.

Economic Brief - June 2026

The Philippine economy contends with faster inflation and growth slowdown amid achieving an upper-middle-income status. Strict digital asset regulation, a proposed United States call center onshoring policy, and potential tariff hikes from labor compliance issues pose potential industry challenges.

BSP Raises Policy Rate to 4.75 Percent, Likely to Reach 5.25 Percent By Year-end

The Philippine Central Bank increased its key policy rate due to global supply shocks. Economists project the benchmark rate will increase again by the end of the year as inflation remains elevated.

Economic Brief - May 2026

While inflation and surging bond yields strain the Philippine economy, emerging industrial corridors and international economic pacts in digital infrastructure and critical minerals provide critical strategic growth channels for Philippine enterprises.

First Quarter Economic Growth at 2.8 Percent, High Prices and Increased Unemployment Heighten Economic Risks

The Philippine economy grew by only 2.8% in Q1 2026, alongside rising inflation and unemployment, raising concerns over possible stagflation. Analysts warn that prolonged global volatility and supply chain disruptions may continue to pressure businesses and consumers.

Economic Brief - March 2026

Energy shocks caused by the Middle East conflict pushed Philippine inflation to 4.1 percent and interest rates to 4.5 percent. Reduced purchasing power, supply chain disruptions, and threatened overseas Filipino worker remittances compound these inflation risks, downgrading economic forecasts.

March 2026 Inflation Rate Up to 4.1 Percent, Elevated Inflation Seen to Persist in the Coming Months

Philippine inflation hit 4.1 percent in March 2026, driven by Middle East tensions and surging fuel costs. Despite temporary government price controls, expected central bank policy shifts to manage persistent inflation pose near-term risks to domestic business expansion.

Impact of the US/Israel-Iran Conflict on Prices of Basic Goods and Services

Surging global fuel prices are driving up the costs of food, transportation, and electricity in the Philippines. While the government has implemented temporary price freezes and fuel subsidies, analysts expect continued inflationary pressure on basic goods and services through the second quarter.

Updates on US/Israel-Iran Conflict: Local Policy Developments and Economic Implications

The US-Iran conflict is driving Philippine fuel prices higher, pushing inflation to a 13-month high. The government is implementing four-day work weeks and seeking tax cuts to stabilize costs. Further oil price hikes may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to manage the economy.

BSP Cuts Rate to 4.25 Percent

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reduced the policy rate to boost investor confidence and consumer spending. While this marks a three-year low, officials signal the easing cycle is ending.

Assessment on Philippine Economic Situation

Economic growth slowed due to corruption scandals and reduced government spending. While investment confidence is currently subdued, remittances and the BPO sector continue to provide stability to the domestic economy.

Maharlika Investment Corporation To Invest in Asian Terminals, Inc.

The Maharlika Investment Corporation will invest up to PHP 8 billion in Asian Terminals Incorporated. This maritime infrastructure expansion secures a vital national asset, aligning with government priorities for economic growth and trade resilience.

Corruption Woes Pull PH Growth Outlook Down and Prompt BSP Rate Cut Anew

Global lenders downgraded the Philippine economic outlook due to severe weather and corruption concerns. While the central bank lowered interest rates to stimulate activity, enterprises must track governance reforms, which remain critical to restoring long-term business confidence.

November 2025 Inflation Down to 1.5 Percent

Philippine inflation slowed to 1.5 percent in November 2025 due to falling rice prices. While recent cyclones keep some food costs high, manageable inflation supports further central bank monetary easing, offering enterprises stable near-term operating costs.

S&P Global maintains BBB+ investment rating for PH Investment

S&P affirmed the Philippine credit rating at BBB+ with a positive outlook. Although a flood control corruption scandal slowed short-term economic growth, long-term fiscal reforms remain robust, sustaining stable borrowing conditions for large enterprises.

Balance of Payments at USD 4.61 Billion Deficit in October 2025

An October surplus driven by remittances and outsourcing narrowed the Philippine balance of payments deficit. With international reserves at USD 110 billion, the country retains strong buffers to stabilize the peso against global financial disruptions.

S&P Indicates a Slightly Recovered Manufacturing PMI Index for the Philippines in October 2025

Philippine manufacturing saw marginal expansion in October 2025 as weak export demand slowed growth. While local performance lagged behind regional peers, modest input cost inflation and holiday spending expectations offer stable near-term conditions for enterprises.

PH Trade Deficit Decreased in September 2025 Amid Increased Exports

The Philippine trade deficit narrowed to USD 4.35 billion in September 2025 due to strong electronics exports to the United States. Solid industrial manufacturing demand ensures stable near-term trade conditions for large enterprises.

October 2025 Inflation Rate Unchanged at 1.7 Percent

Philippine inflation held at 1.7 seven percent in October 2025 as lower food costs offset utility hikes. While stable prices support monetary easing to lower borrowing costs, enterprises must navigate broader economic slowdowns driven by public corruption scandals.

Year-to-Date FDI For 2025 Down by 20 Percent

Philippine net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell 20 percent due to policy uncertainty and an infrastructure corruption probe. While manufacturing and real estate remain stable, enterprises should brace for fluctuating capital inflows and dampened investor confidence.

The Philippines’ Credit Rating Trail: Missed A-Rating Upgrade, Current Ratings Affirmed

Infrastructure corruption probes have delayed the Philippines' credit rating upgrade from S&P Global. Although other rating agencies remain optimistic about economic resilience, the governance issues are currently dampening investor confidence and growth outlooks.

PMI Below 50: Philippine Manufacturing Sector Slows Down This September

Philippine manufacturing contracted in September amid weak domestic demand, marking an unusual slowdown compared to regional peers. However, sustained raw material purchasing signals an anticipated recovery. Enterprises must monitor these shifting consumption patterns.

S&P and ADB Cut Their Economic Growth Outlook for the Philippines this 2025

S&P and the ADB lowered the Philippine economic growth forecast to 5.6 percent due to global tariff risks. Low inflation and monetary easing sustain domestic demand, maintaining a resilient environment for large enterprises.

Maharlika Investment Corporation Partners with Saudi Arabian Firm for Renewable Energy Investments

ANALYSIS: Highlights of the 2025 State of the Nation Address

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s State of the Nation Address prioritized socio-economic and public works reviews over industry policy. Enterprises should monitor upcoming 2026 budget deliberations to verify funding allocations for critical energy, infrastructure, and labor development initiatives.

2050 Philippines Strategic Outlook

PSA Intelligence offers a forward-looking assessment of the nation’s geopolitical, economic, and sociopolitical trajectory over the next quarter century.

Maharlika Investment Corporation Acquires 8.04 Percent Indirect Stake in NGCP

Updates on the Maharlika Investment Fund

The Maharlika Investment Corporation faces scrutiny over low returns and delayed projects. Its initial energy investment is deferred to the first quarter of twenty twenty-five, while the International Monetary Fund warns of capital risks to state-owned universal banks.