Philippines Annual Islamist Insurgency Report - 2026 Edition

Executive Summary

• Security gains stemming from government security operations against the remnants of local Islamist armed groups in Mindanao have remained steady throughout 2025. No major attacks against both government forces and civilians occurred during this period, and the trend of Islamist-related violent incidents is overall declining.
• Most of the fifty-four (54) Islamist-related violent incidents in 2025 were armed encounters from government-initiated operations or rido (clan feuds). The geographic concentration of Islamist-related violent incidents remained in the Bangsamoro region and its neighboring provinces.
• Remnants of Islamist threat groups were still not able to stage any significant attacks against civilians and the private sector in 2025. 
• The most active threat groups outside of the peace process in 2025 continued to be the BIFF and the Maute Group. Incidents attributed to these groups were concentrated in their respective bailiwicks in the Maguindanao and Lanao provinces.
• While the MILF is no longer considered an active insurgent group due to their participation in the peace process, PSA Intelligence analysts continue to record encounters between the MILF and government to a limited extent. Suspects not explicitly affiliated with any Islamist groups also continue to account for a majority of violent incidents in BARMM and its surrounding provinces.
• The implementation of the peace process between the MILF and Philippine national government was tested by political turmoil between the two parties and the MILF’s discontent with the government’s implementation of peace process-related programs. PSA Intelligence assesses that without significant headway in resolving these issues, the peace process may become more fragile than in past years, but still remain formally intact.
• The Bangsamoro Parliamentary Elections (BPE) are officially scheduled for Monday, September 14, 2026 after multiple postponements since 2021. PSA Intelligence maintains its assessment that a major role for the MILF in the first elected BARMM government will be favorable in protecting the region’s existing security gains and making them more permanent.
• PSA Intelligence remains largely of the view that the threat posed by Islamist threat groups in the Philippines will still be in decline in the short term. The situation in the medium to long term will be more complex, and PSA Intelligence analysts remain generally cautious of Islamist groups’ remnants and their abilities to regroup.
• PSA Intelligence reiterates that the threat of Islamist violence against civilians and the private sector will likely remain in decline while not disappearing altogether. As a general rule, any travel and activity in the area should be coordinated and consulted with private security/risk advisors like PSA Intelligence and with local government officials when possible, and done with professional security measures in place.