Business Preparedness Amid Earthquake Risk in Metro Manila
Scientific assessments indicate that a massive earthquake poses a severe threat to Metro Manila. Experts estimate tens of thousands of fatalities and significant infrastructure damage. This report examines the challenges of disaster planning in one of the most densely populated regions.
This report discusses the potential risks and impact of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Metro Manila. The report examines the possible scenarios that may follow an earthquake, assessed by experts, to the challenges of preparing and planning for such a disaster, both at the individual and government level.
The earthquake risk to Metro Manila is well-documented by scientific institutions. The threat comes from two main sources: the West Valley Fault, which is capable of generating a 7.2-magnitude earthquake, and the Manila Trench, which is capable of generating an 8.0-magnitude earthquake and poses a tsunami risk to the Philippines.
The 2004 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) continues to be the primary earthquake reference for Metro Manila. In the event of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake emanating from the West Valley Fault, this MMEIRS estimated that 34,000 people in Metro Manila may die while 114,000 people may be injured. The report estimates that 170,000 residential houses may collapse and 340,000 residential houses partly damaged. The report states the possibility of fire breakouts across the region, that may cover some 1,700 hectares with additional casualties. Infrastructure is expected to be heavily damaged from such a quake.
There have been various other reports by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and PHIVOLCS that have updated the building collapse and casualty estimates for a Metro Manila earthquake. The Greater Metro Manila Area Risk Analysis Project (GMMA RAP), produced in partnership with the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), expanded the damage analysis to the neighboring provinces of Metro Manila. GMMA RAP estimates 37,000 fatalities and 605,000 injuries. Injury estimates are significantly higher than the MMEIRS study for a number of reasons, including that the MMEIRS study only attempted to calculate significant injuries, while GMMA RAP also attempted to calculate minor injuries, and that GMMA RAP includes the neighboring provinces as well as Metro Manila itself. GMMA RAP is fully available online.
PSA Intelligence believes that best practices surrounding this threat are often not well agreed upon or established, particularly because of the uncertainty surrounding how “The Big One” will impact Metro Manila. There are no international standards for earthquake preparedness in a lower-middle-income country, particularly in one of the most densely populated cities in the world. For individuals who are responsible for mitigating the earthquake risk for an organization, they often find themselves with an understanding of the threat, make preparations, and then learn some new piece of information that fundamentally challenges their planning assumptions about how they and their organization will be impacted.
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