Half-Year Outlook 2026
The mid-year outlook highlights a decline in violent insurgency and kidnapping, alongside a rise in crimes against businesses and financially motivated cybercrimes. The national economy faces slow growth and elevated inflation driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict.
PSA Intelligence presents the 2026 Half-Year Outlook, reviewing key security, economic, and political developments in the Philippines for the first half of the year. The report unpacks the internal and external challenges and assesses the expected trends, scenarios, and developments for these key areas in the next six months.
Safety and Security
- Domestic Safety and Security: The risk landscape for traditional security threats is evolving. PSA Intelligence breaks the down the current status of the Communist and Islamist insurgencies, kidnapping risk, and notable crimes against businesses, highlighting areas for businesses and organizations to monitor.
- Communist Insurgency: The New People’s Army Resorts to Low-Level Individual Attacks in its Weakest Military State
- Islamist Insurgency: Short-term Increase in Violence Observed, Though Threat Group Capabilities Remain Limited
- Kidnapping Risks: Kidnap-for-Ransom Persists Amidst Overall Decline in Kidnapping Volume
- Crimes Against Business: Property and Asset-Focused Crimes Drive Short-term Increase in Recorded Incidents
- Cyber Risks and AI Integration: Financially motivated cybercrime remains the dominant threat. PSA Intelligence uncovers the emerging and persistent tactics of scam hubs and the aggressive integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in escalating localized phishing, deepfake fraud, and disinformation campaigns.
- Cyber Risk: Financially Motivated Cybercrime Remains Dominant Amidst Growing Use of AI-Powered Fraud
- Foreign Conflicts and Geopolitics: The Philippines continues to face risks from geopolitical tensions near its borders and the ongoing conflicts in other parts of the world. PSA Intelligence provides its analysis of the domestic impacts and forward-looking assessments on tensions in the Middle East, West Philippine Sea, between China-Taiwan, and Russia-Ukraine.
- Foreign Conflict: Conflict in Middle East Most Consequential to the Philippines in 2026
Business and Economics
- Macroeconomic Indicators: Both external headwinds and domestic challenges are testing the strength of the Philippine economy. PSA Intelligence analyzes the impacts of elevated inflation, agricultural job losses, and a weakening investment climate on short- and medium-term economic conditions.
- The Philippine Economy: Primary Growth Drivers Slow Down, But Exports Growth Remains Stable
Politics and Policy
- National Politics and Legislative Priorities: The last two years of the Marcos administration is facing mounting pressure from competing political factions, protest mobilizations, and sluggish legislative progress. PSA Intelligence provides projections on the legislative progress of the administration's priority measures and the future of the Philippine government's domestic stability in the short term.
- Domestic Political Stability: Threat of Major Political Destabilization Against the Marcos Administration Remains Low in the Short Term
- Legislative Developments: Slower Legislative Progress Expected in the Next Two Year
PSA Intelligence Security Analyst Team Inside
The PSA Intelligence team of security and risk analysts monitor thousands of intelligence sources across the Philippines and broader APAC region daily. PSA Intelligence supplies well-known international corporate security operations centers and enterprise risk management teams the reports and data required for their operations.
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PSA Intelligence: Regional Reporting Capabilities
Our fast-paced intelligence pipeline is driven by a dedicated team of Manila-based security analysts that monitor the Philippine landscape every day. We bring together on-the-ground local insight with large scale data monitoring and cut through the noise to deliver the concise, actionable intelligence that our clients rely on to navigate their risks.
Regular Briefs & Industry Monitors
We provide a weekly digest of key political, economic, and security developments and analysis of their short and long-term impact on the local and regional business environment. Our Industry Monitors deliver regular summaries of key developments in manufacturing, energy, mining, and tourism.
Our Cyber Risks Briefs detail emerging cyberthreats, digital security vulnerabilities, and regulatory shifts, while our Economic Briefs provide macroeconomic snapshots covering inflation, trade markers, and fiscal policy. We also publish Health Risks Briefs tracking local disease statistics and healthcare capacities.
Targeted Crime & Kidnapping Reports
Our teams produce continuous updates and analysis on developing crime and safety trends targeting corporates and staff, ranging from opportunistic petty crime to syndicated criminal activity. This includes deep dives on known modus operandi, suspect profiles, and sociopolitical environments.
Additionally, we monitor Kidnapping Related Incidents in the Philippines, tracking publicly-known abduction cases, motives, victim profiles, and the broader regional developments that influence these threat vectors.
Insurgency, Terrorism, and Civil Unrest
We conduct ongoing analysis of activities of Communist insurgents in the Philippines, including their estimated operational capabilities, regional hotspots, and the progress of government peace processes.
Our coverage extends to Islamist Insurgency and Terrorism in Mindanao, assessing activities not limited to terrorism-related motivations but also criminal, personal, and cultural factors. We provide continuous assessments of political stability, strikes, protests, and broader civil unrest dynamics affecting operational continuity.
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