PSA Intelligence Reports

Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - April 30, 2026

Domestic fuel prices are projected to rise next week due to high global crude oil prices and a weak peso near PHP 61/USD, driving up import and operational costs for local businesses.

Energy Emergency
Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - April 30, 2026
Restricted transits in the Strait of Hormuz will persist as US-Iran talks remain stalled, sustaining supply chain disruptions and elevated war risk premiums for Philippine enterprises.

Summary

  • PSA Intelligence notes that the limited volume of transiting ships will continue in the next week so long as there is no tangible progress in peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran.
  • Experts believe the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) effective May 1, 2026 will not have an immediate impact on global oil prices and supply while oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
  • Domestic fuel prices in the Philippines are projected to increase next week, as global crude oil prices have averaged at USD 105.32 per barrel in the last seven days. Additionally, the Philippine peso is projected to remain at or near PHP 61 per US dollar.
  • Economists project high inflation and low economic growth for the Philippine economy this 2026.
  • Renewable energy and electric vehicle-related industries in the Philippines are expected to continue benefiting from increased consumer demand for fuel alternatives; while the local aviation industry might incur higher operational costs in the short-term due to high prices of jet fuel and aircraft maintenance.
  • PSA Intelligence expects larger-than-usual turnout for the rallies and demonstrations held on May 1, Labor Day, due to high fuel costs. Widespread violence or civil disobedience arising from these protests is unlikely.

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