PSA Intelligence Reports

Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - April 24, 2026

A sharp oil price increase is likely if geopolitical conflict resumes in May. Restricted vessel movement in the Strait of Hormuz may cause a refined petroleum product shortage for the Asia-Pacific region.

Energy Emergency
Special Advisory: Updates on the National Energy Emergency and Related Disruptions - April 24, 2026

Summary

  • The Philippines completed the delivery of its 1.1 million-barrel diesel order and secured a new order of 21,000 metric tons of LPG from the US. A potential domestic fuel price rollback is anticipated on April 28, 2026, driven by average crude oil prices of USD 103.27 per barrel and the indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire.
  • A sharp oil price increase is likely if conflict resumes in May. Restricted vessel movement in the Strait of Hormuz, caused by American and Iranian blockades, is projected to cause a shortage of refined petroleum products in the Asia-Pacific region, leading Philippine Airlines (PAL) to reduce May capacity by about 10 percent.
  • Reduced availability of jeepneys continues due to elevated fuel prices. A recent rollback of prices this week had minimal effect on PUV operations. PSA Intelligence projects a short-term reduction in available road PUVs, lengthening daily commute times.
  • In the Philippines, higher food prices due to high fertilizer costs are expected in the third and fourth quarter of the year. The Department of Agriculture forecasts a 20 percent to 50 percent loss in domestic rice harvests in the second cropping season (around June or July) due to El Niño and high fertilizer prices, requiring the import of over 4.8 million metric tons this year to stabilize rice supply.

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