Philippines Annual Communist Insurgency Report - 2026 Edition
PSA Intelligence's Philippines Annual Communist Insurgency Report - 2026 Edition discusses identified trends in Communist insurgent activity in the Philippines in 2025, the movement's outlook for 2026, and what these mean for organizations operating in high-risk areas.
The declining trend in the New People’s Army’s (NPA) strength and capabilities continued to show in 2025. The Philippine government maintains that the threat of Communist insurgency in the country is contained, with government security forces conducting operations against rebels. National and local government programs entice rebels to surrender, while progress with peace talks remains slow.
Most NPA violent incidents in 2026 are still expected to be limited attacks against isolated government forces and suspected military informants. PSA recorded 166 violent incidents involving NPA rebels in 2025, 131 of which were armed encounters resulting from government operations against rebels.
Despite their declining capability, NPA rebels in 2025 were still able to conduct limited attacks against isolated government forces and suspected military informants. This was most evident in Negros Occidental, where 33 cases or about 20 percent of NPA violent incidents occurred during the period.
Remaining rebels appear to be preoccupied with evading government security forces while attempting to continuously receive food and other supplies. Recruitment activities were also reported in some rural areas in the country, particularly in Negros Occidental and on Mindoro Island.
The NPA is visibly struggling internally and in terms of asserting their relevance in the present. The movement may continue to have a hold in its bailiwicks, but violent activity will likely become even more confined to where they are most often recorded.
A strong comprehensive community relations and government liaisons program is highly recommended for clients that have established or are seeking to establish operations in areas considered to be rebel hotspots. This means closely coordinating with law enforcement and local government and regularly conducting community outreach programs, if applicable.
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