Islamist Insurgency and Terrorism Report – August 2025

Five Islamist insurgency-related violent incidents were reported in August 2025, all of which were separate armed encounters between government troops and Islamist armed militants, including members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Maute Group, and unidentified armed men. Three of the incidents occurred in Maguindanao del Sur, while the provinces of Basilan and Lanao del Sur each recorded one incident.

Notably, government troops intervened in one of the clashes in Maguindanao del Sur between the groups of an MILF member and the brother of a village chairman in barangay Sapakan, Mamasapano municipality. The three-hour clash ended after officials from the 33rd Infantry Battalion of the Philippine Army mediated between the warring groups.

Peace and development groups have recently raised concerns about the risk of violence and instability in the Bangsamoro region amid the impasse between the interim MILF leadership and the national government on the suspension of the decommissioning process. The halting of the final phase of the decommissioning process and the leadership changes in the Bangsamoro government care of Malacañang earlier this year have since exposed the growing fracture within the MILF, as well as between the Front and the national government.

The government peace panel that signed the 2014 peace deal with the Front warned against a potential outbreak of violence leading to and even after the first parliamentary elections next month unless the government helps the Front unite its leadership and forces. Apart from the Front’s members, the panel underscored that other actors such as private armies or guns-for-hire under traditional politicians are also armed, further contributing to the precarious security situation in the region.

In August, MILF Chairman Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim called on the Bangsamoro people to unite against political manipulation, particularly against the national government in Manila. This came five months after President Marcos Jr.’s appointment of Abdulraof “Sammy Gambar” Macacua as the new interim chief minister and of the new Bangsamoro Transition Authority members in March. The appointment was questioned by the interim government’s Central Committee, who also pointed out concerns about their implications for the peace process.

As of this time, analysts do not see any mobilization efforts on the part of the MILF as a result of these developments. Despite his concerns towards the national government, MILF Chairman Ahod Ebrahim remains very unlikely to call on his supporters to carry out violent attacks against isolated targets in the Bangsamoro region. At the same time, there does not seem to be a clear breakaway leader that can mobilize remnants and factions out of the MILF’s frustration with the socioeconomic commitments under the peace process. The highlighted incidents during the period underscore that MILF-related violent incidents are driven by rido or clan feuds, political rivalries, and territorial disputes.