Islamist Insurgency and Terrorism Report – July 2025
In July 2025, PSA Intelligence recorded eight Islamist insurgency-related violent incidents. Four of which were attributed to elements of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, while four other were carried out by unidentified armed individuals.
Eight Islamist insurgency-related violent incidents were reported in July 2025. Three of these incidents were armed clashes between warring groups under the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Central Mindanao. The violent incidents during the period were recorded in the provinces of North Cotabato and Maguindanao del Sur. Meanwhile, one Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) commander was ambushed and killed in Zamboanga del Norte.
The armed clashes involving six groups with links to the MILF were reported along the boundaries of Maguindanao del Sur, the Bangsamoro Special Geographic Area (SGA), and North Cotabato. Residents temporarily left the areas to avoid getting caught in the crossfires, but one civilian was left wounded by the incident. Military and local authorities warned the groups involved in internal hostilities that they will face military offensives if they do not stop fighting particularly within residential communities.
The MILF leadership has indefinitely suspended the final phase of the decommissioning of its 14,000 remaining fighters and 2,450 firearms amid frustrations over the national government’s unfulfilled commitments for livelihood programs under the 2014 peace deal. The national government maintains that pertinent programs have been rolled out in the Bangsamoro region since 2015 and that the issue mainly lies with the MILF’s enforcement and distribution of aid. The MILF, both at its leadership and among its decommissioned fighters, has been expressing these frustrations over the past few years.
PSA analysts note that these recent developments are mainly political in nature but recognize that they raise potential security implications for the region. As of this time, analysts do not see any mobilization efforts on the part of the MILF as a result of these developments. Aside from dealing with leadership changes, the MILF is also preoccupied with the upcoming first Bangsamoro parliamentary elections in October this year.
Despite his concerns towards the national government, MILF Chairman Ahod Ebrahim remains very unlikely to call on his supporters to carry out violent attacks against isolated targets in the Bangsamoro region. At the same time, there does not seem to be a clear breakaway leader that can mobilize remnants and factions out of the MILF’s frustration with the socioeconomic commitments under the peace process. The highlighted incidents during the period underscore that MILF-related violent incidents are driven by rido or clan feuds, political rivalries, and territorial disputes.
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