Islamist Insurgency and Terrorism Report – March 2025
In March 2025, PSA Intelligence recorded three Islamist insurgency-related violent incidents, which were two armed clashes and one bombing attack.
PSA recorded three Islamist-related violent incidents in March 2025. These incidents were each attributed to the elements of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) who were involved in an armed clash with government troops in Maguindanao del Norte; two warring clans under the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the Special Geographic Area of the Bangsamoro region; and unidentified armed individuals who lobbed a grenade towards a military detachment in Maguindanao del Sur.
PSA expects to record more violent incidents that are potentially election-related or criminally motivated as the midterm elections approaches. These incidents may overlap with violent incidents attributed to Islamist militants. The highlighted incidents during the period underscore the risk of violence in the Bangsamoro region during the election period, but do not necessarily point to a worsening security situation as of this time.
Currently, however, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-led Bangsamoro Government is dealing with leadership changes after President Marcos appointed Abdulraof “Sammy Gambar” Macacua as the new interim chief minister on March 9 and new Bangsamoro Transition Authority members on March 10.
The Moro Islamic Liberation Front has expressed their disagreement with the recent overhaul of the Bangsamoro Parliament as officially enacted last Saturday, March 15. Several statements released by the group’s Central Committee, led by former interim chief minister (ICM) and the group’s chairman Ahod Ebrahim, question the intentions behind these changes and raise concerns about their implications on the peace process. Sentiments from other stakeholders are clearly divided, but the Philippine government asserted the validity of the appointments.
PSA notes that the politics of the situation continues to unfold along with varying speculations about the reasons behind the overhaul. At present, analysts have yet to observe significant changes to the security situation in the BARMM but remain cautious due to the region’s historically volatile security environment.
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