2025 Philippines Annual Islamist Insurgency Report
PSA's 2025 Annual Islamist Insurgency Report examines the continued weakening of Islamist insurgent groups, with most violent incidents in 2024 stemming from military operations in BARMM.
In 2024, the Islamist insurgency is considered to be at a very low point compared to its heights in 2018 and 2019. PSA expects the threat of terrorist activity against civilians and the private sector to continue declining in 2025, though it will not disappear altogether.
Most Islamist-related violent incidents PSA recorded in 2024 were encounters that originated from military operations against militants. The vast concentration of these encounters was in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) and its neighboring provinces.
Remnants of Islamist threat groups were not able to stage any significant attacks against the private sector in 2024. PSA can note with great confidence that remnants of Islamist groups in their current state will have limited capacity to conduct major attacks against civilians in general, and their activity will likely remain confined to the BARMM and its immediate outskirts.
Most Islamist-related violent incidents involved remnants of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and the Maute Group. Both groups were primarily involved in encounters resulting from government operations against them.
PSA notes that as Islamist threat groups weaken further, it becomes more difficult to distinguish between criminal and terrorist threats. The threat of criminal group activity is usually more immediate to the private sector, but because of criminal groups' lower profiles, it is more difficult to map comprehensively.
As a general rule, PSA recommends that clients closely coordinate and consult with their private security/risk advisors, law enforcement and local government, especially when traveling in areas like the BARMM. Prohibiting travel with public officials or candidates should be considered during the election season, given the region's high incidence of political violence.
PSA Intelligence Security Analyst Team Inside
The PSA Intelligence team of security and risk analysts monitor thousands of intelligence sources across the Philippines and broader APAC region daily. PSA Intelligence supplies well-known international corporate security operations centers and enterprise risk management teams the reports and data required for their operations.
Contact us to for access to our regular risk management reports and data-feeds. Be sure to talk to us about our analyst vetted, reliable data feeds for your AI driven risk management systems too. We have 20+ years of back-data and keep the data acquisition pipelines running so you don't have to.
PSA Intelligence: Regional Reporting Capabilities
Our fast-paced intelligence pipeline is driven by a dedicated team of Manila-based security analysts that monitor the Philippine landscape every day. We bring together on-the-ground local insight with large scale data monitoring and cut through the noise to deliver the concise, actionable intelligence that our clients rely on to navigate their risks.
Regular Briefs & Industry Monitors
We provide a weekly digest of key political, economic, and security developments and analysis of their short and long-term impact on the local and regional business environment. Our Industry Monitors deliver regular summaries of key developments in manufacturing, energy, mining, and tourism.
Our Cyber Risks Briefs detail emerging cyberthreats, digital security vulnerabilities, and regulatory shifts, while our Economic Briefs provide macroeconomic snapshots covering inflation, trade markers, and fiscal policy. We also publish Health Risks Briefs tracking local disease statistics and healthcare capacities.
Targeted Crime & Kidnapping Reports
Our teams produce continuous updates and analysis on developing crime and safety trends targeting corporates and staff, ranging from opportunistic petty crime to syndicated criminal activity. This includes deep dives on known modus operandi, suspect profiles, and sociopolitical environments.
Additionally, we monitor Kidnapping Related Incidents in the Philippines, tracking publicly-known abduction cases, motives, victim profiles, and the broader regional developments that influence these threat vectors.
Insurgency, Terrorism, and Civil Unrest
We conduct ongoing analysis of activities of Communist insurgents in the Philippines, including their estimated operational capabilities, regional hotspots, and the progress of government peace processes.
Our coverage extends to Islamist Insurgency and Terrorism in Mindanao, assessing activities not limited to terrorism-related motivations but also criminal, personal, and cultural factors. We provide continuous assessments of political stability, strikes, protests, and broader civil unrest dynamics affecting operational continuity.
Ask an Analyst
Do you have a question regarding this report that you would like to ask our team of security and risk analysts? Ask here.
Query Sent
Thank you. Our intelligence team will respond to your query shortly.